As entrepreneurs and businesspeople, we often ask ourselves in what type of world will we be conducting our work in the coming years.
At present, it is a world that continues to offer new opportunities; ones that were unimaginable, just a few years ago. It is an open, free, and limitless world. A world where Italy has undeniably shown its strengths: a fact that can be directly proven by over 600 billion Euro in exports, that our country realizes every year.
However, the present is being (and the near future will be) increasingly conditioned by a novel and extremely risky characteristic that needs to be considered in all our forecasts, as well as in all the decisions we need to make moving ahead.
I am referring to what could be defined as "the risk of cumulative uncertainties."
We live, more or less consciously, amidst a pile of uncertainties that feed off each other.
The effects of these are only just beginning to be felt, but are clearly present and becoming increasingly impactful. It is essential that we make ourselves aware of the fact that they are being deeply rooted within both individual and social psychologies.
In fact, I would even go as far as to say that there have never been so many synergistically dystopian uncertainties in the course of human history, than the ones we are immersed in today. I don’t use the term ‘synergistically dystopian’ lightly: if they are not prevented, or at least mitigated to the best of our abilities, the combined effect of these uncertainties could be extremely negative, both within and outside of corporate entities.
I personally don’t know how to order the numerous uncertainties we are facing, in terms of their relevance and gravity. I do firmly believe, though, that each of the following are deeply eroding the economic and social fabric of our world. And I should add that this list is by no means exhaustive:
- Uncertainty about development - can the economic growth and prosperity accumulated in recent decades be maintained or is stagnation, or worse, inevitable? Will the future be largely inferior to the present??
- Uncertainty about social achievements - will the social protection system we have built – including pensions, health care and social support - be sustainable in future years, or will the current levels of low birth rates combined with an aging population put it at risk?
- Uncertainties about work - will there be work for everyone in the future? Will there be enough new jobs to replace those that will inevitably disappear and be replaced by software and AI? Can current education and training methods ensure the possibility of seizing new opportunities moving forward?
- Uncertainty about health - we thought we had relegated deadly epidemics to the annals of history, yet recently discovered that we are, in fact, highly vulnerable and underprepared to deal with them.
- Uncertainty about peace – the term ‘world war’ had all but left our vernacular, yet here are, with one taking place right in our own backyard (proxy of otherwise).
- Uncertainty about the climate - our planet is at risk; the transition in the way we produce and consume energy is taking longer to happen than any of us would like; we’ve come to think that epic, related disasters are now an inevitability.
- Uncertainty about debt - we have accumulated a huge amount of debt that will be increasingly difficult to service. If we continue to ignore or manage it, the consequences will be severe.
- Uncertainty about new technologies - will we control them or will they control us? Looking at the bigger picture, it can be said that digitization has only just begun. But are we able to effectively evaluate and plan for the direct and indirect impacts in the long term?
- Uncertainty about the future of democratic regimes – we will need to confront non-democratic regimes that wield significant power and are often very aggressive: will it be possible to realize and maintain forms of responsible capitalism compatible with liberal democracies like ours?
A number of other pressing issues could, of course, be added to the list, such as inflation, the scarcity of rare earth elements, deglobalization, immigration, and many more. Others that we have yet to see or predict, might also come to the surface.
The bottom line is that today we are faced with not only 9 or 10 individual uncertainties, but a situation of overall uncertainty raised to the power of nine or ten. Each has the potential to trigger one or more of the others, with the possibility of unleashing a number of uncontrollable chain effects.
As entrepreneurs, we must not hide from the problem.
To rebuild trust and avoid dangerous setbacks, three essential elements will be necessary:
- drastic innovation in all fields,
- effective change management to successfully implement the necessary innovations,
- a leadership capable of designing the necessary innovation and implementing the resulting changes.
The only certainty about the future is that a tremendous amount of innovation will be required in all fields because the problems, largely unprecedented, that lie ahead of us demand equally novel solutions - from education to welfare, from healthcare to justice. But these are just examples. Science and technology provide us with formidable tools, but technological sensitivity must be complemented by humanistic sensitivity, and we must pay great attention to the overall sustainability of our country.
The role of entrepreneurs in promoting innovation will be crucial, both within companies and across society, as a whole.
Entrepreneurs know only too well that deep and continuous innovations require equally deep and continuous changes within organizations.
Managing change is far from being a purely rational process: it means appealing to the head, heart, and gut of the people. As a prerequisite of any major change, we need to imagine and demonstrate to our people a future for which it is worthwhile to “break your back”. Leaders need to understand that change provokes anxieties in those affected by the change, and they must carefully manage such anxieties.
Managing change is primarily a matter of leadership and developing a shared purpose. I'm not just referring to individual leadership, here, quite the opposite. More and more often in the most successful companies, leadership is embodied by cohesive teams of individuals that are capable of guiding others and mobilizing the commitment of everyone in their respective organizations. It’s only when all parts of a corporate structure move together, following a systemic vision, that truly ambitious goals can be achieved. That's why companies which convey a purpose that is not solely linked to profit to its employees, regularly achieve much higher levels of performance compared to the ones that do.
Managing change requires courage because the enemies of change are strong and forceful. This holds true within organizations, and even more so in society.
[Also read The courage to be a useful leader]
Change management will be increasingly crucial in the world that awaits us and, in many cases, will coincide with generational transitions, which in themselves are already proving to be very a challenging form of change.
However, we are not just businessmen and women who must manage continuous changes within our respective organizations. We are representatives of a leadership class that will need to manage the type of changes that are yet to be shaped, for our entire country and beyond…
The success of various, individual countries will be determined by the quality of their leadership: political, entrepreneurial, trade union and intellectual.
So, what kind of leadership does a country like ours need, in a time of great uncertainty, of necessary innovation, and, inevitably, of profound changes? A type that is:
- Dynamic, open to the new, and embraces diversity: capable of attracting talent, even from distant places, and unafraid, thanks to its strong identity.
- United: having the capability to work together, teaming up for the common good.
- Meritocratic: and, at the same time, capable of involving everyone, while moving them forward; merit and solidarity are, after all, not mutually exclusive.
- Generous: willing to take care of the common good, in addition to (and sometimes beyond) the rightful interest of one's own family and business.
- Ambitious: too often, our country limits itself due to an ingrained victim mentality, yet historically, even in the recent past, we have shown that we can aim high and achieve great things.
Italy could be among the major beneficiaries of the global changes that lie ahead, at least if it can equip itself and innovate profoundly.
Each of us must adopt a great sense of responsibility, both for what we do and for what we don’t, to restore confidence in our community and to give a deeper sense to the word "progress".
