Europe thrives on globalization, and the well-being of European countries will continue to heavily depend on international trade.
The globalization of the coming years will not diminish, but it will take different forms from what we have experienced in recent decades. Globalization will evolve because the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, and competition – and partly opposition or even conflict – among major powers will intensify.
European countries must decide whether to collectively become one of the major global powers or to endure the new power dynamics that are emerging. No individual European country will be able to ensure its well-being and sovereignty by acting alone.
Maintaining the European Union in its current state would mean being subject to decisions and policies made elsewhere and gradually losing the independence and well-being built over time.
The EU, in order to build its future, must decisively act on 4 main objectives:
1. Significantly increase productivity and competitiveness by accelerating energy and technological transitions: the comparison between productivity growth in the United States and the EU is stark.
2. Drastically reduce dependence on strategic sectors from other global powers: this applies to gas and oil, but also to areas such as microchips and rare earth elements.
3. Achieve much greater common military autonomy within a renewed and invigorated NATO, while also preparing for partial disengagement from the United States.
4. Foster numerous European champions of global caliber: Airbus is just an example of how we could position ourselves, even though we have effectively dropped out of the rankings in key sectors.
The EU, in order to pursue ambitious goals like the ones just mentioned, needs very courageous decisions and policies:
• We must truly unify the European market, making it one of the largest and most innovative global markets. Currently, we are a collection of fragmented small markets – energy, telecommunications, and finance are just examples.
• We must make the decision-making process within EU bodies much more effective and efficient, leaving behind paralyzing unanimity and embracing flexible approaches in various areas, as we have already demonstrated with the Euro.
• We need to add a structural layer of federal investments. These investments should be identified, managed, and financed at the community level. Individual states’ public budgets are exhausted, and currently, the EU budget merely reallocates existing resources from one country to another, from one purpose to another. However, we require several trillion additional resources to dedicate to common research, shared infrastructure, and development projects both within Europe and beyond. Eurobonds are a real instrument that can unlock a stagnant Europe if we rigorously clarify their purposes and governance mechanisms. In recent years, we have drawn attention to this issue.
However, perhaps all of this would not be enough if we haven’t simultaneously built an even stronger alliance among democracies – primarily between the United States and Europe – than what currently exists.
Can Europe still be a global power alongside the US and China?
In my opinion, we should not underestimate the roles that India or certain Arab countries may assume in the coming years. Depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia itself could remain a decisive player in global balances, certainly not a friend to either Europe or the United States.
I believe that Europe, if more united and capable of moving in the directions outlined above, can truly be a global power:
• with an economic strength comparable to that of the US and China,
• coordinating military strength among various countries far surpassing the current situation, with a greater role within NATO,
• potentially wielding more soft power than other major powers due to the sustainability of its economic and social model.
But the fundamental point is that all these things alone would not be enough to secure our future unless, at the same time, in the coming years, we manage to consolidate an even closer alliance among democracies. An alliance not against anyone, but capable of engaging forcefully with any global interlocutor. A stronger partnership between the US and Europe, both economically and militarily, could make a formidable contribution to enhancing global well-being and safety.
Is there the political will to move in this direction in Europe? Is there a real popular drive?
In my view, European politics today hesitates to think big for ideological reasons or due to its inherent weakness, or simply because politics remains national. The politics of individual states and the European technocracy still consider what is essential to avoid entirely disastrous economic, social, and electoral troubles as somewhat fanciful. They seem unaware that without a significant leap forward, our destiny is sealed.
Fortunately, history is creative: driven by new crises or pulled by new leadership, we could recover from the delays and mistakes accumulated in recent years. Time works against us, and we underestimate the contingent threats that can arise from the growing relative strength of other powers, ongoing wars, and some of our demographic vulnerabilities that are difficult to correct.
The impetus to decisively move toward a sustainable and sovereign Europe, as well as a stronger and more balanced alliance between the United States and Europe, won’t come solely from politics. It is the responsibility of leadership – primarily entrepreneurial but not exclusively – to show the way and set an example. The future project we are discussing is only possible through close collaboration between the public and private sectors.
The choices made by governments and businesses in Europe and the United States in the coming years will significantly impact our social system and the future of the new generations.
